The US Department of Commerce has begun issuing licenses for Nvidia's H20 chips. SHFE tin prices maintained a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on August 11, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) fluctuated downward slightly during the night session, closing at 267,400 yuan/mt, down 0.26% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) After Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump at the White House, the US Department of Commerce began issuing licenses for H20 chips to Nvidia. The US Department of Commerce had delayed issuing these licenses for several weeks. (2) In July this year, the US Congress passed the so-called "Big and Beautiful" bill, which was strongly advocated by President Trump. The bill stipulates that the US government will no longer provide tax credits for EVs starting from September 30 this year. According to a report by CNBC on the 9th, in order to enjoy the $7,500 tax credit before the deadline, US consumers are rushing to buy EVs. Data shows that EV sales accounted for 9.1% of total passenger vehicle sales in July, a record high. In addition, used EV sales in the US in July also approached 36,700 units, another monthly record. The company expects that EV sales may set a record in Q3. However, in Q4 this year, US EV sales may "plummet". (3) "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos: President Trump plans to nominate Stephen Milan, an economic advisor, as a Fed governor, which will add a voice that explicitly questions traditional views within the Fed, especially regarding how tariffs affect inflation and economic growth. Many Fed officials are concerned that tariffs will raise prices while weakening the economy, putting the central bank in a dilemma: whether to cut interest rates to support the economy or maintain rates to control inflation. Milan, however, believes that this concern is misplaced—the economy will benefit from tariffs, while prices will not be significantly affected, which will allow the Fed to resume the interest rate cut process that was paused earlier this year. The question is whether his views are persuasive enough to influence broader committee decisions—or, if concerns about a weakening job market prompt Fed officials to restart interest rate cuts, his views may not even need to be put into play.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall tin ore supply in major producing areas such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters may maintain production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production in August (bullish ★). (2) Demand-side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin strips in east China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased; Electronics industry: The electronics terminal market in south China has entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment among terminals, with orders only meeting immediate needs; Other sectors: Demand in areas such as tinplate and chemicals remains stable, with no unexpected growth observed.

Spot market: Transactions in the spot market remained dominated by rigid demand with strong wait-and-see sentiment. The premiums and discounts showed a divergent structure: small-brand tin traded at parity to a premium of 300 yuan/mt, Yun-brand tin commanded premiums of 300-600 yuan/mt, while the premium for Yunxi-brand tin stabilized at 600-800 yuan/mt. Downstream solder producers adopted cautious procurement strategies, with new orders remaining weak due to the off-season and the US's 100% tariff on chips, maintaining only essential production inventories. Traders attempted to refuse to budge on prices but faced low acceptance of high offers, with most transactions concentrated on low-priced bids. Trading activity was sluggish in south and east China amid weak end-use demand, prompting some firms to delay restocking pending policy clarity. Overall, spot transactions remained sluggish under weak supply and demand dynamics, with price fluctuations constrained by macro uncertainties and fundamental tug-of-war.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]